CRIME AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP USING THE GRANGER METHOD
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Abstract
This study analyzes the relationship between cargo theft and macroeconomic variables in Brazil from 2004 to 2018, focusing on GDP, inflation, unemployment, and public education spending. It also considers events such as the expansion of the Bolsa Família program, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2014 political crisis, and the 2018 truck drivers’ strike. The methodology includes the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger Causality Tests, and Impulse Response Functions. Data were collected from public sources and analyzed using time series econometrics. Results show Granger causality from GDP to cargo theft and prices, and that increases in education spending gradually reduce such crimes. The study concludes that crime negatively affects economic growth and that education has a mitigating effect on theft in the logistics sector.
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Copyright (c). Conjuncture Bulletin (BOCA)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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