FISCAL MANAGEMENT IN BRAZIL AND ADVANCES IN THE MEDIUM-TERM EXPENDITURE STRUCTURE

Abstract

The absence of fiscal structures incorporating a medium-term perspective has undermined the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil, hindering the coordination between strategic budget planning and annual execution. This study aims to analyze the trajectory of the federal government's fiscal management between 2000 and 2023 in light of the principles and guidelines that characterize Medium-Term Expenditure Frameworks (MTEFs), particularly in the context of the new fiscal framework established by Complementary Law No. 200/2023. The methodological approach is exploratory-descriptive, combining qualitative and quantitative dimensions. Data collection relied on secondary sources extracted from legal documents, fiscal reports, and official statistical databases. Two main techniques were employed for data analysis: (i) documentary content analysis applied to fiscal regulations, and (ii) time series analysis of key fiscal indicators. The findings reveal that Brazil’s fiscal management during the period remained anchored in short-term practices, characterized by institutional rigidity and a lack of intertemporal predictability. Although normative advances have occurred—such as the enactment of Complementary Law No. 200/2023—the country has not yet consolidated a functional MTEF. The study concludes that the effectiveness of the new fiscal regime will depend on the articulation between fiscal rules and strategic planning, requiring the institutionalization of mechanisms that promote fiscal discipline and intertemporal integration within the budget cycle. This research contributes by identifying the constraints and potential of integrating fiscal rules with planning structures, providing empirical input for the formulation of more realistic and effective policies.